Beyond Monte Carlo: A Computational Framework for Uncertainty Propagation in Planetary Entry, Descent and Landing

Abstract: Space system verication and validation require high fidelity simulations to predict system performance in presence of uncertainties in the spacecraft and environment. Brute-force Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are overly resource-expensive for such high-dimensional nonlinear systems. A computational framework for uncertainty propagation in planetary entry, descent and landing is proposed that goes beyond traditional MC based dispersion analysis. The methodology and simulation results for this transfer operator based method are provided and compared with MC results to bring forth the computational efficacies.